Key Takeaways from Professor Mark Howden's 2022 National Landcare Conference PresentationThe 2019-2020 Australian Black Summer. The 2020 Brazil Rainforest wildfires. The 2021 North American wildfires. The 2021 Syrian drought. The 2022 Eastern Australia floods. The 2022 Pakistan floods.
Climate change impacts are rapid, accelerating, and they are happening now.
Professor Mark Howden, Director of the Institute for Climate, Energy & Disaster Solutions at The Australian National University, warned the delegates of the 2022 National Landcare Conference of the unfortunate reality we now find ourselves in due to the undeniable consequences of global warming. Laying out the simple facts and consequences of climate change, Professor Howden forecasted our future — one of our extreme climate creating extreme climate events.
“We are not on track for [a global warming of] 1.5 degrees, we are far off track for 1.5 degrees.”
We had record greenhouse gas emissions last year, leading to record greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. At 421 parts per million, we have a concentration 50x higher than pre-industrial times. It is worth noting that these record greenhouse gases include not just carbon dioxide, but also methane, nitrous oxide, and other gases — with methane at triple it’s pre-industrial concentration.
To put the impact of this concentration increase into perspective, Professor Howden simply stated the degree change which brought about the ice age, or glaciation: five degrees. A five degree decrease gives us glaciation. Accordingly, a five degree increase gives us seas. At 1.5°C above historical period temperatures, we are already a quarter of the way towards the climate extreme of sea. It might not sound like much, but a 1.5°C change is huge in terms of global temperatures, he warned. But we’re not even on track for a 1.5°C increase.
To stick to the Paris Agreement, keeping global warming to no more than 1.5°C, we need to be Net Zero by 2045. That means a world where we have cut greenhouse gas emissions to as close to zero as possible, with any remaining emissions re-absorbed by the atmosphere, oceans, and forests. A 2 degree increase means Net Zero by at least 2070. But both a 1.5°C or 2°C increase still requires negative emissions — not only do we have to get to Net Zero, but we have to suck carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere too.
Looking forward, there is no country or sector that will not be impacted by climate change and its extreme climate events. It brings forward challenges of feeding the world, rising sea levels, population displacement — the list goes on. Global agricultural productivity is down 20% compared to what it would be in the absence of climate change. Food shocks are becoming more frequent. Fire season forecasts grow more dire.
What can we expect? We’re likely to see big changes in average rainfall, variability in rainfall, and rainfall intensity. Consequently, this brings about issues of water quality and availably, drought stress, plant establishment, soil carbon, fires, in addition to erosion, flooding, contamination, infrastructure damage and more.
Even after listing these cause and effect symptoms of global warming, Professor Howden had more to say — and as he repeated numerous times, they’re broadly net negative.
If a 5 degree increase brings seas, what are we seeing before 1.5? Our sea levels are going up at 4.5 millimetres per year. Last century, on average, they went up by 1.3 millimetres a year. Already, we’re seeing an acceleration of sea levels. Our waves aren’t far behind, with increasing wave intensity right across the globe. Both of which bring more energy to our coasts — more erosion and more cyclones. Before moving on, he noted a higher proportion of our tropical cycles are now category 3, 4, and 5. The tropical cyclone scale ends at 5.
Biodiversity loss. Displacement. Pest, weed, and disease challenges. Heat. The impacts of climate change are systemic, they go across different systems, and they’re happening now.
“The environment in which we operate will be fundamentally changed.”
Look now to home, with Australia in La Niña. Typically, La Niña events occur every 3 to 5 years or so, increasing the chances of above-average rainfall in summer. Now as summer approaches, we’re warned of another summer of flooding rains. For the third summer in a row. Warning of the parallel nature of La Niña and El Niño, Professor Howden forecasted the intensity of El Niño to be just as strong, resulting in extreme droughts.
Despite the unavoidable doom and gloom that comes with topics like global warming, Professor Howden offered hope and motivation for a future with climate change. Professor Howden reminds us that we are humans, and we are an adaptive species.
You can watch the rest of Professor Howden’s 2022 National Conference keynote speaker presentation on Landcarer, via: landcarer.com.au/viewdocument/keynote-speaker-prof-mark-howden
What is Australia doing to uphold our commitment to the Paris Peace Agreement?Our recent change of government has seen the newly established Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water — the Labour Federal Government’s body entrusted to deliver on the Government’s climate change, energy, and environment agenda. Leading Australia’s response to climate change and sustainable energy use, protecting our environment, heritage and water, the department advises on climate policy measures, like the updated 2030 emissions targets and the safeguard mechanism, and the new national environmental agenda. Chris Bowen, the Minister for Climate Change and Energy, has also reiterated his commitment to restore the Climate Change Authority as a central, science-based advisory body to the Federal Government. Looking forward, the Climate Change Authority is expected to give advice on a new emissions target for 2035, before the end of this term of government.
RepuTex, leading provider of modelling services for the Australian electricity, renewable energy and emissions markets, was brought in as a third-party to model the expected impact of the proposed Albanese government climate policies. Answers from these models were then adopted by the government as answers to specific targets.
Emissions Reduction TargetThe Albanese government has enshrined a new emissions reduction target, including a 43% cut by 2030 from 2005 emission levels, for Australia to reach Net Zero by 2050.
As reports of a 17% increase in industrial emissions from 2005 greet our new government, Albanese has also committed to work with businesses to cut industrial greenhouse gases by 5m tonnes — about 1% of Australia’s total emissions — a year from 2023. RepuTex modelling on the A$15bn National Reconstruction Fund and the Safeguard Mechanism further forecasts an emissions cut of up to 48m tonnes a year by 2030. In total, the Labor Government forecasts an emission reduction of 440 Mt between 2023 and 2030.
Re-Wiring the NationThe Albanese government has committed to upgrading the electricity grid.
Establishing the Rewiring the Nation Corporation (RNC) as a government-owned entity, the Labor Government aims to ensure the grid is rebuilt on budget. However, the RNC will partner with industry and provide low-cost finance to build the new system plan.
Bringing forward planned new transmission links is meant to allow a faster influx of large-scale solar, wind and batteries in regional renewable energy zones. It is also committing $300m to developing 400 community batteries and 85 shared “solar banks” for households and businesses who cannot put solar panels on their roofs.
“RepuTex estimates it will lead to renewable energy providing 82% of electricity by 2030, up from 68% on the current trajectory. The rise in cheap clean energy is forecast to, on average, cut power bills by $275 by 2025.”
Use of the Safeguard MechanismThe Albanese government plan to use the Coalition’s safeguard mechanism to cut emissions at big industrial sites.
Originally introduced under Tony Abbott, the safeguard mechanism promised to limit industrial emissions — now, the Labor Federal Government plan to use it to curb excessive, previously unpenalised emissions release. Bowen expects
A$15b National Reconstruction FundThe Albanese government will use the National Reconstruction Fund to rebuild Australia’s industrial base, investing in projects that build prosperity across the country.
To promote change, industry will be able to access low-cost financing to embrace clean, sustainable solutions under this fund. The A$15 billion fund will invest in green metals (steel, alumina and aluminium), clean energy component manufacturing, hydrogen electrolysers and fuel switching, agricultural methane reduction, and waste reduction.
Powering the Regions FundThe Albanese government intends to establish a fund to improve energy efficiency within existing industries and develop new industries in Regional Australia.
Supporting both the decarbonisation of existing industry and the creation of new industry with uncommitted funding from the Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF)/Climate Solutions Fund.
National Electric Vehicle StrategyThe Albanese government intends to lower the cost of electric vehicles.
By reducing import tariffs on some imported electric vehicles (EVs), applying a 47% fringe benefits tax on EVs provided through work, and rolling out further EVs charging infrastructure, RepuTex forecasts 89% of new car sales and 15% of all vehicles will be EVs by 2030.
What are your thoughts? Is Australia doing enough?
Bibliography:https://www.directory.gov.au/portfolios/climate-change-energy-environment-and-water/department-climate-change-energy-environment-and-water
https://alp.org.au/policies/rewiring_the_nation
https://www.mondaq.com/renewables/1195540/what-does-a-new-federal-government-mean-for-the-australian-renewables-industry